Fiscal Hydraulics — Crisis Finance Simulation
Crisis finance simulation

What happens when a major climate shock strikes?

Adjust the parameters below to explore how public finance moves through crisis-response channels, and how delays, leakage, and subnational delivery constraints affect whether support reaches communities in time.

Suggested sequence
1 Run Baseline — note the share reaching communities in time
2 Run Higher finance, same delays — compare volume against speed
3 Run Streamlined gates — compare delivery timing
4 Run Stronger subnational, same gates — compare last-mile reach
Scenario presets
Simulation results
—
Reached in time
Share of the response envelope reaching communities within the crisis window
—
Late arrival
Share of the response envelope reaching communities after the crisis window
—
Lost to leakage
Share of the response envelope lost before reaching communities during the crisis window
Shock parameters
Shock severity 8
Implied revenue shock: 32%
Crisis response window (days) 30
Funding sources
PAF reserve 40
Contingency reserve 20
Values are shown in relative units against a baseline fiscal reservoir of 100.
Gate delays
Approve gate (days) 14
Release gate (days) 10
Commit gate (days) 14
Disburse gate (days) 7
Leakage rates
Gate leakage (%) 25%
Subnational leakage (%) 35%
Humanitarian leakage (%) 32%
PAF leakage (%) 12%
Delivery channels
Crisis procedure readiness (%) 20%
PAF readiness (%) 80%
Humanitarian channel share (%) 40%
Subnational delay (days) 15

When delivery systems are slow, additional funding does not automatically translate into faster support for people in need.
Pre-arrangement can improve speed. Gate reform can improve access. Subnational capacity can improve reach.

This is an illustrative model of crisis-finance delivery constraints, not a formal assessment of any specific country. Values are shown in relative units scaled to a baseline fiscal reservoir of 100. The model focuses on the timing of delivery through public and humanitarian channels, with core indicators reported against the crisis response window.