Fiscal Hydraulics — Crisis Finance Simulation
Crisis finance simulation

What happens when a major climate shock strikes?

Adjust the parameters below to explore when delays in approvals, releases, disbursement, and local execution become the main constraint on crisis response. All financing stocks are shown in relative model units, scaled to a baseline fiscal reservoir of 100.

Suggested sequence
1 Run Baseline — note the share reaching communities in time
2 Run Higher finance, same delays — compare volume vs speed
3 Run Streamlined gates — compare delivery timing
4 Run Strong subnational — compare last-mile reach
Scenario presets
Simulation results
—
Reached in time
share of fixed response envelope reaching communities within the crisis response window
—
Late arrival
share of fixed response envelope reaching communities after the crisis response window
—
Lost to leakage
share of fixed response envelope lost during the crisis response window
Shock parameters
Shock severity 8
Implied revenue shock: 32%
Crisis response window (days) 30
Reserve sizes
PAF reserve size (relative units) 40
Contingency reserve size (relative units) 20
Reserve sizes are limited to plausible shares of the baseline fiscal reservoir in this illustrative model.
Gate delays
Approve gate (days) 14
Release gate (days) 10
Commit gate (days) 14
Disburse gate (days) 7
Leakage rates
Gate leakage (%) 25%
Subnational leakage (%) 35%
Humanitarian leakage (%) 32%
PAF leakage (%) 12%
Delivery channels
Crisis procedure readiness (%) 20%
PAF readiness (%) 80%
Humanitarian delivery share (%) 40%
Subnational delay (days) 15

When delivery systems are slow, additional funding does not automatically translate into faster support for people in need.
Pre-arrangement can improve speed. Gate reform can improve access. Subnational capacity can improve reach.

This is an illustrative model designed to explore when delivery constraints, rather than funding volume, become the main limit on crisis response. It is not a formal assessment of any specific country. All financing stocks are shown in relative model units, scaled to a baseline fiscal reservoir of 100. The simplified version focuses on crisis-response delivery channels and fixed response-envelope accounting. Core indicators are reported against the crisis response window.